THE
UNCOMFORTABLE TRUTH OF ELUSIVE ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT- NIGERIA’S CENTURY OLD
FAILURES AND PROSPECTS FOR A NEW NIGERIA
Good
afternoon, chieftains and members of the Action People’s Congress.
Thanks
for inviting me as your Keynote Speaker at your Unveiling of Road Map Summit. I
do not know how you decided to take this high risk of inviting me to your
gathering, knowing full well that my zeal for candor can be generally
unsettling for some people of your class and occupation. Since you took the risk, I have assumed the
liberty to speak boldly even to your discomfort especially considering that we
live in a season of grim when our country is greatly troubled. In perilous
times like this, Truth is the absolute freedom. I shall be spurred on by the
counsel of George Orwell who in honor of truth stated that “in a time of deceit
telling the truth is a revolutionary act”. I further assume that if you wanted
someone with the skills of deceit, it would not be me that you would have
invited to your gathering. I therefore speak to you today not as a politician
Context
and Fact are very important for me as both a scholar and practitioner of public
policy. Context is the missing link that helps us to connect the dots between
the visible and the hidden, and between the general and the specific. Fact or
Truth is the evidence that never takes flight nor ceases to exist even where
ignored for hundred years. So my speech in content and delivery will be hinged
on context and facts.For context, nothing serves a better guide than History.
The philosopher and novelist George Santayana famously said that “Those who do
not remember the past are condemned to repeat it”. Winston Churchill reinforced
Santayana by counselling, “Study history, study history. In history lies all
the secrets of statecraft.” I am compelled even further to tread the path of
history by our Centenary celebration and shall therefore use – Nigeria’s
political history as the context for this speech.
The
Political trajectory of Nigeria much like her entire history is checkered. In
the book, This House has Fallen, “Nigeria was the focus of great optimism as a
powerful emerging nation that would be a showcase for democratic government”.
Sadly the optimism was frittered over the years. I shall take the excerpts from
my University of Nigeria lecture in January in this regard. “If you traced the
political history of our country since independence in 1960 and you will better
understand the horror of our faulty political foundation. The first democratic government ushered in an
independent Nigeria but was cut short by
a coup in 1966, a counter coup in 1967, civil war from 1967 to 1970, military
rule from 1970 at the end of the war until another coup in 1975, another
unsuccessful coup in 1976 the then Head of State was murdered, continued rule
of the military until 1979 when a successful political transition ushered in
the second republic but it became a democratic process that did not leave a
good mark on governance until it was cut short in 1983 by yet another military
coup but the discipline instilling but draconian regime was itself sent packing
in 1985 through yet another coup.
The
succeeding regime ruled from 1985 until 1993. The hallmark of that regime was procrastinated
conduct of a transition to democracy. When it finally, reluctantly started the
transition process, it regrettably went ahead to thwart the political rights of
citizens who had elected a democratic president by annulling the elections. The
regime then responded to the public disturbance and agitation that followed by
installing an interim national government that lasted only three months
following yet another military intervention. The regime that followed was more
heinous than ever imagined possible by Nigerians until 1998 when by divine
providence, it was cut short. Never again!
A new season came but it was yet one with the military still in the
saddle. That regime however surprised skeptics when it successfully conducted a
transition that ushered in democratic governance in 1999 ending the long
sixteen years of militarization of governance that materially defines the
psyche of government in Nigeria. Cumulatively, from the time of our
independence in 1960 to 1999- the military governed for about twenty nine years
while two flashes of pseudo democracy had a little more than ten years in all.
The common theme in our extremely unstable and volatile political history was
that each regime truncation mirrored a Russian roulette with justification for
regime change being the “necessity to rescue the country from bad governance
and corruption”.
Compared
to the mere six years of 1960-1966 and the even shorter four and a half years
of 1979-1983, the period of 1999 to date under democratic rule has been the
longest ever season of such political system in Nigeria. An objective
assessment of our democratic journey since the last fifteen years by May of
this year, will return the verdict that we are very much still in the nascent
zone of democracy as a political system which despite all its short comings
trump all other alternatives. Fifteen years has given us more of civilian rule
than democracy. The quality of the military/political elite and the depth of
undemocratic culture, practices and nuances have worked to produce very
disappointing results of governance to citizens. Yet, we must temper our
disappointment with the cautious sense of accomplishment that the subordination
of the military to the constitutional will of the people of Nigeria in the
1999, 2003, 2007, 2011 elections is perhaps the very tiny ray of light in what
had for more than five decades been a canvass of political tragedies.
“Today
is Independence Day. The first of October 1960 is a date to which for two
years, Nigeria has been eagerly looking forward. At last, our great day has
arrived, and Nigeria is now indeed an independent Sovereign nation. Words cannot adequately express my joy and
pride at being the Nigerian citizen privileged to accept from Her Royal
Highness these Constitutional Instruments which are the symbols of Nigeria’s
Independence. It is a unique privilege which I shall remember forever, and it
gives me strength and courage as I dedicate my life to the service of our
country. This is a wonderful day, and it is all the more wonderful because we
have awaited it with increasing impatience, compelled to watch one country
after another overtaking us on the road when we had so nearly reached our goal.
But now, we have acquired our rightful status, and I feel sure that history
will show that the building of our nation proceeded at the wisest pace: it has
been thorough, and Nigeria now stands well-built upon firm foundations.”
These
were the very gushing and giddy words of the first Prime Minister of Nigeria
Alhaji Sir Abubakar Tafawa Balewa on October 1, 1960.
According
to history books, prehistoric settlers lived in the territories that make up
the area today known as Nigeria as far back as 9000 BC. According to Wikipedia,
the period of the 15th century saw the emergence of several “early independent
kingdoms and states” that made up the British colonialized Nigeria – Benin
kingdom, Borgu kingdom, Fulani empire, Hausa kingdoms, Kanem Bornu empire,
Kwararafa kingdom, Ibibio Kingdom, Nri kingdom, Nupe kingdom, Oyo Kingdom,
Songhai empire and Warri Kingdom. Each Kingdom was composed of dominant ethnic
nationalities with unique language, custom, culture, tradition and religion. ”
These
kingdoms independently traded among themselves and with the rest of the world
especially Great Britain. It was however by 1886 through expanded trade with
the territories under the charter of the Royal Niger Company that the
mercantilist root of that influence became established. The handover of the
company’s territories to the British Government followed in 1900 leading to the
areas becoming organized as protectorates that helped extend the great British
Empire of that era. In 1914, Nigeria was formed by combining the Northern and
Southern Protectorates and the Colony of Lagos. For administrative purposes, it
was divided into four units: the colony
of Lagos, the Northern Provinces, the Eastern Provinces and the Western
Provinces.”
One
could say that considering the way Nigeria emerged it was no more than an
artificial creation purely intended to serve the administrative convenience of
the reigning colonial power. In fact, no one better conveyed this perception of
Nigeria as artificiality than Chief Obafemi Awolowo who once described Nigeria
as a “mere geographical expression”. It is common for Nigerians across the
territory in moments of deep despair at the failings of this union of multiple
diversities to loudly rue the fact that a certain Lord Lugard and his fiancée –
Ms. Shaw -were the “creators” of Nigeria.
The
forty six years that followed the creation of Nigeria until her independence in
1960, saw varying degrees of mutation in the relationship between Britain and
the people of the territory. The journey
of governance commenced among the three dominant regions that made up the
Nigerian territory- namely the North, the West and the East. There were
understandably, deep mistrusts and suspicions among the ethnic groups with each
one seeking to advance their own cause and interest but their leaders managed
to forge a united front in the struggle to attain self-government. Their
successive negotiations and constitution building processes among them and
acting jointly, with colonial Britain- helped to achieve one of the most
anticipated political independence of a country in Africa. It culminated in the
successful agitation for self-government on a representative and ultimately
federal basis. The great Dr. Nnamdi
Azikiwe who was first the Governor General at independence in 1960 and later
ceremonial President when in 1963 we became a Republic, succinctly captured that
feat of the Nationalists in gaining independence.
He
wrote in 1966 that, “We talked the Colonial Office into accepting our
challenges for the demerits and merits of our case for self-government. After
six constitutional conferences in 1953, 1954, 1957, 1958, 1959, and 1960, Great
Britain conceded to us the right to assert our political independence as from
October 1, 1960. None of the Nigerian
political parties ever adopted violent means to gain our political freedom and
we are happy to claim that not a drop of British or Nigerian blood was shed in
the course of our national struggle for our place in the sun. This historical
fact enabled me to state publicly in Nigeria that Her Majesty’s Government has
presented self-government to us on a platter of gold.”
Ladies
and gentlemen, the Great Zik of Africa who had profound influence in the
philosophy of life of late Chief Ben Nwazojie whose family has gathered us- had
great hopes that the successful struggle for independence would bequeath to us
as a people; “our place in the sun”. And
yet, even though that entity created in 1914 will become one Century years old
in the next three months and had only a few days ago became a relatively old
country of fifty three years, its present state is anything but sunny for
majority of her citizens. For the fact is that whether of the North, South,
East or West of the present day Nigerian territory we know that most Nigerians
feel but a deep sense of disappointment at what has become of the dream that
our founding fathers dared to imagine was possible. That deep internal threats
to Nigeria’s territorial integrity remain part of core issues of our polity in
2013 menacingly brings into sharp focus the wide gulf between what it means to
be a country as different from the higher order state of being a nation.
Thus,
the phrase, “an independent Sovereign nation” that Sir Tafawa Balewa used in
describing Nigeria in his sweet poetry of a speech at independence remains
under doubtful scrutiny and is constantly under threat through various cycles
of our political history. For if there is one construct that remains the sticky
point in our COUNTRY today, it is whether indeed there is yet a NATION called
Nigeria? Or put differently, what happened to the COUNTRY that held so much
promise on that morning of October 1, 1960? After all, nothing makes the point
of the failure to successfully transition from country to nation than the fact
that a only week ago, the current government as a response to heightened
socio-political tensions in the land announced yet another National Dialogue
that is “aimed at realistically examining and genuinely resolving, longstanding
impediments to our cohesion and harmonious development as a truly united
Nation”.
What
happened? How come a country which at independence was enthusiastically
described by our first leader as an independent sovereign nation is at fifty
three years hosting another “national conversation” to determine whether it is
a worthy union for everyone? Was it also not only a few years ago in 2006 that
the administration of President Olusegun Obasanjo had hosted as similar
gathering? Who were the people that discussed at that time and what did they
resolve? What seems to be the intractable issue that almost every
administration –military and civilian alike- have not managed to settle on
whether we do indeed have a common destiny or not? How come that despite the
oft expressed “sincere intent” of each cycle of ruling class (mark my choice of
word as distinct from leadership); that each hosted some sort of national
dialogue, conference, conversation, forum etc. (choose your pick), we are
nowhere closer today to our destination of nationhood. To imagine that our
founding fathers mistakenly assumed that we became a nation because the various
nationalities worked collaboratively to secure independence from a common
external “foe” in 1960? How could it be that this journey has thus far turned
out agonizing for almost every one of us?
Even
following the most traumatic civil war that ended in 1970, the reemergence as
one country provided a context to rally the entire citizenry to build from
country to nation. Sadly, that was a missed opportunity. Is it therefore not
heartrending that the present state of our country nearly questions our status
as a Country? The pain of this truism is
that we are in 2014 faced with exactly the same types of ethnic issues that
dotted our union in the 60s. How was it that for over fifty three years, we
never went beyond the amalgamation process to becoming a Country and subsequently
transforming into a Nation? The simple answer to the lamentation and question
is that elite failure happened to Nigeria! A little more political history
following the events of October 1, 1960 will help clarify my answer, simple as
it may sound to those who thrive in confounding complexity.
The
Elite of every successful society always form the nucleus of citizens with the
prerequisite education, ethics and capabilities operating in the political
sphere and the public service, providing the great ideas to build the nation
and possessing the moral rectitude to always act in the public interest. Access
to quality Education ensures that the elite group evolves constantly in every
society. For as long as nations have public education systems that function, the
poorest of their citizens is guaranteed to move up the ladder and someday
emerge as a member of the elite class through academic hard work, strenuous
effort and ultimate success at the higher levels of education.
For
every society that has succeeded therefore, it has taken such progressively
evolving elite class to identify the problems, forge the political systems and
processes, soundly articulate a rallying vision and use sound Policies and
effective and efficient prioritisation of investments (both public and private)
and requisite actions to over time build those strong institutions that outlive
the best of charismatic and transformative individuals. But it always does
start with quality leadership in the public space investing in a sustained
manner for lasting institutions to eventually emerge over time. Institutions do
not just happen. In the same manner, nations do not just happen out of
multi-ethnic countries.
The
globally adopted definition of a country is “ An independent State or country
must meet certain metrics all of which we did on that date:
•
Has space or territory which has internationally recognized boundaries
(boundary disputes are OK).
•
Has people who live there on an ongoing basis.
•
Has economic activity and an organized economy. A country regulates foreign and
domestic trade and issues money.
•
Has the power of social engineering, such as education.
•
Has a transportation system for moving goods and people.
•
Has a government which provides public services and police power.
•
Has sovereignty. No other State should have power over the country’s territory.
•
Has external recognition. A country has been “voted into the club” by other
countries.
Sadly,
Nigeria came to simply equate our statehood with nationhood when our founding
fathers used those terms almost interchangeably forgetting that a State is not
always necessarily a Nation. True, we had becoming a self-governing political
entity that negotiated a federal structure that was cognizant of the near
autonomy of each of its constituting group of people, but although an
independent; we were not and have never acted like a Nation!
Nations
are “culturally homogeneous groups of people, larger than a single tribe or
community, who shares a common language, institutions, religion, and historical
experience.” Each of our then three dominant groups though having their own
internal multiple sub-groups and diversities to resolve still saw themselves as
stand-alone nations. However, once it
related to the territorial construct known as Nigeria that it shares with the
other two groups, no group particularly acted as though the union had forged a
“Nigerian nationhood” in that broader sense. Hence, although we continued to be
a Country, we however did not attain to the definition of a nation which is “a
tightly-knit group of people which share a common culture”. The people of a
nation generally share a common national identity, and part of nation-building
is the building of that common identity. There were so many fundamental issues
that our country which is unlike France of Germany or even Egypt needed to
resolve among its multiple divides if it wished to make that profound jump from country to Nation in order to attain the
status of a nation-state.
The
Elite in those instances are required to lead the rest of the people in a
deliberative process of nation building- of forging that common identity that
all will defend. It is the visionary power of the elite to move a people of
diversity beyond the lowest common denominator of mere citizens of one country
into a nation of people that makes the United States to stand out as a model
multi-cultural society. Hence, even “with
its multicultural society, the United States is also referred to as a
nation-state because of the shared American “culture.” Some people may of
course dismiss this crave for evolution from country into a nation and say it
does not matter. For those ones, I recall the wise words of Carolyn Stephenson,
a Professor of Political Science at the Univ. of Hawaii-Manoa. Her words could
have been written with our country in mind. Professor Stephenson states that “
Nation-building matters to intractable conflict because of the theory that a
strong state is necessary in order to provide security, that the building of an
integrated national community is important in the building of a state, and that
there may be social and economic prerequisites or co-requisites to the building
of an integrated national community” Simply put, if a people of diversity in a
country truly wish to succeed, they must forge a shared vision and values to
realize their goal.
Our
failure to immediately use the early days of independence to commence the
nation building process is what I consider the biggest missed opportunity in
the history of Nigeria. It is the reason as Professor Stephenson asserts, we
find ourselves in “cyclical intractable conflict” So, it was not surprising
that shortly after the novelty of our political independence wore off the
troubling underbelly of our nascent democracy was revealed in the rather
prescient reading of the situation at that time by the Central Intelligence
Agency of the United States in one of its memorandum of 1966. It wrote
“Africa’s most populous country (population estimated at 48 million) is in the
throes of a highly complex internal crisis rooted in its artificial origin as a
British dependency containing over 250 diverse and often antagonistic tribal
groups. The present crisis started” with Nigerian independence in 1960, but the
federated parliament hid “serious internal strains. It has been in an acute
stage since last January when a military coup d’état destroyed the
constitutional regime bequeathed by the British and upset the underlying tribal
and regional power relationships. At stake now are the most fundamental
questions which can be raised about a country, beginning with whether it will
survive as a single viable entity. The situation is uncertain, with
Nigeria,……is sliding downhill faster and faster, with less and less chance
unity and stability. Unless present army leaders and contending tribal elements
soon reach agreement on a new basis for association and take some effective
measures to halt a seriously deteriorating security situation, there will be
increasing internal turmoil, possibly including civil war”.
The
failure to build a nation out of the country it was bequeathed did in fact
change the course of Nigeria’s history. It meant that our foundling political
elite could not speedily and “sincerely act” on the lofty ideals. The nation
building process could have benefitted from their nationalist campaign for
independence when they had successfully united against a common “enemy” and
brought us our independence. Instead, our political elite turned backward on
the supposed “independent sovereign nation” and resorted to lethal ethnicity in
playing a brand of politics mostly devoid of altruism. So much so was this
prevalent character of the political elite across board that they collectively
failed to retrace their steps from the precipitous slide. It was within this context of elite failure
that the 1966 military coup struck unleashing a canvass of governance
instability that only abated in 1999 when the fourth Republic commenced with
the successful democratic transition currently running for the last fourteen
years.
No
wonder, empirical evidence points to poor governance –especially corruption as
the biggest obstacle to the development of Nigeria. Understanding the cancerous
impact of understand how come a country
with the potentials hardly available to more than other one third nations of
the world has remained at the bottom of socio economic ladder as a laggard.
Economic growth rate and ultimate development of nations are determined by a
number of factors that range from sound policies, effective and efficient
public and private investments and strong institutions. Economic evidence
throughout numerous researches proves that one key variable that determines how
fast nations outgrow others is the speed of accumulation of human capital
especially through science and technology education. No wonder for these same countries by
2011- South Korea of fifty million
people has a GDP of $1.12trillion, Brazil of one hundred and ninety six million
has $2.48 trillion; Malaysia of twenty eight million people has $278.6Billion;
Chile of seventeen million people has $248.59Billion; Singapore of five million
people has $318.7 Billion. Meanwhile
with our population of 165 million people we make boasts with a GDP of $235.92
Billion- completely way off the mark that we could have produced if we made a
better set of development choices.
More
dramatic is that this wide gap between these nations and Nigeria was not always
the case as some relevant data at the time of our independence reveal. In 1960 the GDP per capita of all these
countries were not starkly different from that of Nigeria- two were below $200,
two were a little above $300 and one was slightly above $500 while that of
Nigeria was just about $100. For citizens, these differentials are not mere
economic data. Meanwhile by 2011, the range for all five grew exponentially
with Singapore at nearly $50,000, South Korea at $22,000, Malaysia at $10,000,
Brazil at $13,000 and Chile at $14,000. Our own paltry $1500 income per capita
helps drive home the point that we have been left behind many times over by
every one of these other countries. How did these nations steer and stir their
people to achieve such outstanding economic performance over the last five
decades? There is hardly a basis for comparing the larger population of our
citizens clustered within the poverty bracket with the majority citizens of
Singapore fortunate to have upper middle income standard of living.
Again,
how did this happen? What happened to Nigeria? Why did we get left behind? How
did these nations become productively wealthy over the last fifty three years
while Nigeria stagnated? How did majority of the citizens of these nations join
the upper middle class while more Nigerians retrogressed into poverty? There
are usually as many different answers to these sets of questions as there are
respondents on the reasons we fell terribly behind. Some say, it is our
tropical geography, yet economic research shows it has not prevented other
countries like China, Australia, Chile and Brazil for example with similar
conditions from breaking through economically. Others say it is size, but China
and India are bigger, and yet in the last thirty and twenty years have grown
double digit and continue to out- grow the rest of the world at this time of
global economic crisis. Furthermore, being small has not necessarily conferred
any special advantages to so many other countries with small population yet
similarly battling with the development process like we are.
Some
others say it is our culture but like a political economist posited “European
countries with different sorts of cultures, Protestant and Catholic alike that
have grown rich. Secondly, different countries within the same broad cultures
have performed very differently in economic terms, such as the two Koreas in
the post-war era. Moreover, individual countries have changed their economic
trajectories even though “their cultures didn’t miraculously change.” How about
those who plead our multiethnic nationalities as the constraint but fail to see
that the United States of America happens to be one nation with even more
disparate ethnic nationalities than Nigeria and yet it leads the global
economy! As for those who say it is the adverse impact of colonialism, were
Singapore, Malaysia and even parts of China like Hong Kong not similarly
conquered and dominated by colonialists?
That
Nigeria is a paradox of the kind of wealth that breeds penury is as widely
known as the fact that the world considers us a poster nation for poor
governance wealth from natural resources. The trend of Nigeria’s population in
poverty since 1980 to 2010 for example suggests that the more we earned from
oil, the larger the population of poor citizens : 17.1 million 1980,
34.5million in 1985, 39.2million in 1992, 67.1million in 1996, 68.7million in
2004 and 112.47 million in 2010! This sadly means that you are children of a
nation blessed with abundance of ironies.
Resource
wealth has tragically reduced your nation- my nation- to a mere parable of
prodigality. Nothing undignifies nations and their citizens like self-inflicted
failure.
Our
abundance of oil, people and geography should have worked favorably and placed
us on the top echelons of the global economic ladder by now. After all, basic
economic evidence shows that abundance of natural resources can by itself
increase the income levels of citizens even if it does not increase their
productivity. For example, as Professor Collier a renowned economist who has
focused on the sector stated in a recent academic work countries that have
enormously valuable natural resources are likely to have high living standards
on a sustainable basis by simply replacing some of the extracted resources with
financial assets held abroad. Disappointedly, even that choice eluded our
governing class who through the decades has spent more time quarreling over
their share of the oil “national cake” than they have spent thinking of how to
make it benefit the entire populace.
The
coup of 1966 anchored its justification on the failure of the political class
to provide good governance. In the exact word of the leader of the coup; “Our enemies are the political profiteers,
the swindlers, the men in high and low places that seek bribes and demand 10
percent; those that seek to keep the country divided permanently so that they
can remain in office as ministers or VIPs at least, the tribalists, the
nepotists, those that make the country look big for nothing before
international circles, those that have corrupted our society and put the
Nigerian political calendar back by their words and deeds.”
In
effect, what we today confront as systemic corruption only metamorphosed to
gigantic proportion through the over nearly fifty decades of the speech given
to justify the first truncation of the will of the people for democratic
governance. As a matter of fact, anyone who will find and read all the
justification statements for coups and the inauguration statements for
democratically elected governments in our fifty three years of being a country
will assume that each group merely modified the speech of their
predecessors. Perhaps the only
differences were the locations of the punctuation marks, the commas, the semi
colons and the full stops in each statement that followed this excerpt from the
statement of 1966.
The
substance is the same – indignation at the grand corruption that has
persistently undermined the effectiveness of governance since our political
independence. The instructive feature
of the dramatis personae that made up the military and political elite class at
various times is their uncanny national spread and the unity of purpose they
managed and have continued to manage to forge among them in the ignoble
business of committing grand larceny against the country. Ethnicity was hardly
and still is not a constraining factor once the political elite of Nigeria-
whether from the North, South, East and West gather at the altar of corruption
to execute their unifying purpose of “transactions”. They are united in
“extracting” from Nigeria because it does appear in the minds that the country
can never move beyond a mere artificial
political construct.
Of
all the obstacles to our greatness, there were two on which citizens
irrespective of their affiliations seemed to have forged a consensus as the
priority agenda issues for their governments to mobilize every sector, level
and individual; to unite, fight and defeat. The two issues are systemic
corruption and pernicious poverty. However, in the last one year with
escalations in insecurity wherein we are now faced with more immediate life
threatening scourge of terrorism within our land those two priorities are
overtaken in ranking. That we now experience regular terrorist killing of the
innocent in our land has pushed the twin issues of poverty and corruption to
second and third priorities of citizens. These recent killings have joined with
the civil war of the 60s to pollute Nigeria with fresh blood of our children-
our daughters and sons, the blood of our women, the blood of our men, the blood
of our young and the blood of our old.
Citizens
who had assumed that the worst possible was the many decades of being trapped
in intergenerational poverty in an ironically “oil wealthy” are now exposed to
deadlier acts of terrorism. Terrorists
became emboldened by the absence of our political class across the entire
spectrum of political leadership who decided to “play their normal politics”
with the blood of the poor. The blood soaked land is convulsing. Do we not hear
the cries especially of the young children and women killed for a cause they
know nothing about? I read the fear laden articles and tweets of many young
Nigerians asking “when this carnage will end?” I hear them lash out angrily
that it is the cumulative failure of older generations of us all in this
gathering that is bequeathing to them- a country so broken and mortally bruised
that again we need divine intervention to heal the land and people.
Is
it therefore not unconscionable that in the over nearly three years of rising
trend of terrorist attacks against whole communities in the central and north
eastern states of Nigeria where our kith and kin have regularly been
slaughtered in cold blood; the milk of empathy has not yet flowed from our
Elders in the Land in the entire political spectrum to suspend “transactional
politicking” and build a united front against this newest common enemy? Is it
not unconscionable that despite the massive public resources committed to
security spending, the government has failed to inspire confidence in
communities and the large public that feel excluded from the more secured lives
of the political elite?
In
shock, Nigerians have wondered whether our political class which carries on
with politicking to “capture or retain power” is comfortable to govern dead
communities. Is it not time for all of our political leaders to pay that utmost
sacrifice of leadership- lay down their personal gain for the good of the
people they wish to lead. Leadership is not the office, the title, the authority,
the mansion one occupies. Leadership is the sacrifice offered that others may
thrive. There are three grades of leadership- Transactional, Transformational
and Transcendental leadership. What our nation asks all of you irrespective of
the acronyms that thread together to make you a political party in this land
today, is that you must immediately “transcend” and mobilize all of
Nigerians against the immediate common
enemies killing our own within our territory.
Your
act of transcendental leadership across your various divides in Nigerian
politics of today, will not only end this fatal insecurity in our country, but
will actually start the process of healing of land and the people. The healing
of our land and people will in turn begin the process of rebuilding the eroded
social capital that we must have for nation building process. John Jacob
Gardener a professor of Leadership defines Transcendental Leadership as
follows: “A new metaphor, transcendent leadership, answers a planetary call for
a governance process which is more inclusive, more trusting, more sharing of
information, more meaningfully involving associates or constituents, more
collective decision making through dialogue and group consent processes, more
nurturance and celebration of creative and divergent thinking and a willingness
to serve the will of the collective consciousness as determined by the group –
in essence, a leadership of service above self” Nothing in any political party
manifesto in our present Nigeria realizes how fundamental it is to first
accomplish this at this time in country.
Economic
research has proven that there can be no development without peace. The
underperformance of our country as a result of the volatility of regime changes
and truncation of democracy direly cost us the opportunity to build vibrant
institutions, to pursue on a sustained basis
sound macroeconomic, microeconomic and structural policies and finally to implement quality, effective
and efficient public and private investment like other nations. Every country is fundamentally composed of
three sectors- the public sector or government, the private sector or business
and civil society. Worse than political instability however is the growing
sense of our current reality that we are “at war”. In a season of war, ladies
and gentlemen, no road map for economic development is viable- no matter how
sound its articulation. I advise that 2014 offers all political actors in
Nigeria, the opportunity to immediately unite and decisively take our country
back from terrorists. This is my most important economic message for your
gathering. As the leading opposition party in the country, your leadership must
be visible in demonstrating a commitment to reaching out to the Government to
commence a united fight to preserve the lives of all citizens.
Of
all the obstacles to our greatness, there were two on which citizens
irrespective of their affiliations seemed to have forged a consensus as the
priority agenda issues for their governments to mobilize every sector, level
and individual; to unite, fight and defeat. The two issues are systemic
corruption and pernicious poverty. However, in the last one year with
escalations in insecurity wherein we are now faced with more immediate life
threatening scourge of terrorism within our land those two priorities are
overtaken in ranking. That we now experience regular terrorist killing of the
innocent in our land has pushed the twin issues of poverty and corruption to
second and third priorities of citizens. These recent killings have joined with
the civil war of the 60s to pollute Nigeria with fresh blood of our children-
our daughters and sons, the blood of our women, the blood of our men, the blood
of our young and the blood of our old.
Citizens
who had assumed that the worst possible was the many decades of being trapped
in intergenerational poverty in an ironically “oil wealthy” are now exposed to
deadlier acts of terrorism. Terrorists
became emboldened by the absence of our political class across the entire
spectrum of political leadership who decided to “play their normal politics”
with the blood of the poor. The blood soaked land is convulsing. Do we not hear
the cries especially of the young children and women killed for a cause they
know nothing about? I read the fear laden articles and tweets of many young
Nigerians asking “when this carnage will end?” I hear them lash out angrily
that it is the cumulative failure of older generations of us all in this
gathering that is bequeathing to them- a country so broken and mortally bruised
that again we need divine intervention to heal the land and people.
Is
it therefore not unconscionable that in the over nearly three years of rising
trend of terrorist attacks against whole communities in the central and north
eastern states of Nigeria where our kith and kin have regularly been
slaughtered in cold blood; the milk of empathy has not yet flowed from our
Elders in the Land in the entire political spectrum to suspend “transactional
politicking” and build a united front against this newest common enemy? Is it
not unconscionable that despite the massive public resources committed to
security spending, the government has failed to inspire confidence in
communities and the large public that feel excluded from the more secured lives
of the political elite? In shock,
Nigerians have wondered whether our political class which carries on with
politicking to “capture or retain power” is comfortable to govern dead
communities. Is it not time for all of our political leaders to pay that utmost
sacrifice of leadership- lay down their personal gain for the good of the
people they wish to lead. Leadership is not the office, the title, the
authority, the mansion one occupies. Leadership is the sacrifice offered that
others may thrive. There are three grades of leadership- Transactional,
Transformational and Transcendental leadership. What our nation asks all of you
irrespective of the acronyms that thread together to make you a political party
in this land today, is that you must immediately “transcend” and mobilize all
of Nigerians against the immediate
common enemies killing our own within our territory.
Your
act of transcendental leadership across your various divides in Nigerian
politics of today, will not only end this fatal insecurity in our country, but
will actually start the process of healing of land and the people. The healing
of our land and people will in turn begin the process of rebuilding the eroded
social capital that we must have for nation building process. John Jacob
Gardener a professor of Leadership defines Transcendental Leadership as
follows: “A new metaphor, transcendent leadership, answers a planetary call for
a governance process which is more inclusive, more trusting, more sharing of
information, more meaningfully involving associates or constituents, more
collective decision making through dialogue and group consent processes, more
nurturance and celebration of creative and divergent thinking and a willingness
to serve the will of the collective consciousness as determined by the group –
in essence, a leadership of service above self” Nothing in any political party
manifesto in our present Nigeria realizes how fundamental it is to first
accomplish this at this time in country.
Economic
research has proven that there can be no development without peace. The
underperformance of our country as a result of the volatility of regime changes
and truncation of democracy direly cost us the opportunity to build vibrant
institutions, to pursue on a sustained basis
sound macroeconomic, microeconomic and structural policies and finally to implement quality, effective
and efficient public and private investment like other nations. Worse than
political instability however is the growing sense of our current reality that
we are “at war”. In a season of war, ladies and gentlemen, no road map for
economic development is viable- no matter how sound its articulation. I advise
that 2014 offers all political actors in Nigeria, the opportunity to
immediately unite and decisively take our country back from terrorists. This is
my most important economic message for your gathering. As the leading
opposition party in the country, your leadership must be visible in
demonstrating a commitment to reaching out to the Government to commence a
united fight to preserve the lives of all citizens.
On
the twin enemies of corruption and poverty, those among us who still need proof
to believe that indeed the two severest maladies from which Nigeria must heal
are poverty and poor governance must not have seen the 2013 Global Corruption
Barometer 2013. Poverty and corruption are two things that rob Nigerians of
their dignity; Poverty deprives one of the basic services they need in order to
preserve their self-dignity. Poor governance on the other hand is what poverty
helps breed.
Thus,
academic research shows that countries which have tended to poor governance end
delivering not delivering the basic social services that citizens need in order
to lift themselves out of poverty and where they do at all, it is too little
and too poor a quality to make a difference.
It is the capacity to constantly deliver equality of opportunities for
better quality of life to all citizens that distinguishes one government from
another. Throughout our fifty three years of history following our independence
in 1960, we sadly have not recorded one stellar record of performance in this
regard by any government. Today, our 69% poor in the land which in real number
is over 100 million of citizens trapped in poverty is the key scorecard of our
five decades of failure.
When
asked by citizens why they think they have been constantly failed by their
governments, they mostly respond that the failure of the state to effectively
function is corruption. This much they said to Transparency International which
invests heavily in surveys around the world. The result of the most recent
survey, tagged ‘Global Corruption Barometer 2013?, (the biggest-ever public
opinion survey on corruption) was recently released all over the world. It
showed that 75 per cent of Nigerians say the government’s effort at fighting
corruption is ineffective. Only 14 per cent of those surveyed say the
government’s effort is achieving results. Also, 94 per cent of Nigerians think
corruption is a problem with 78 per cent saying it is a serious problem.
Over
the past 12 months, the report says, 81 per cent of Nigerians say they have
given a bribe to the police, 30 per cent of those surveyed say they have paid a
bribe for education services, 29 per cent have given a bribe to the registry
and permit services, same for utilities, and 24 per cent have given a bribe to
the judiciary. The survey shows that 22 per cent of Nigerians have paid a bribe
to tax revenue, 17 per cent to land services and 9 per cent has paid a bribe
for medical and health services. Transparency International had last year rated
Nigeria as the 35th most corrupt country in the world. Whether we choose to
accept it or not, we are a country engulfed in systemic and endemic corruption
with its attendant cancerous – wasting away, corrosive effect- on what is
legendarily called our “huge potentials”.
Take
the natural resources sector to which we have willingly and disastrously
mortgaged our lives to as a result of failure of leadership to embrace hard
work, effort and productivity as national values. Nigeria is Africa’s largest oil exporter, and
the world’s 10th largest oil producer, accounting for more than 2.2 million
barrels a day in 2011. Oil revenues totaled $50.3 billion in 2011 and generated
more than 70 percent of government revenues. However, for a sector that sadly
determines our rise and fall in the last fifty three years, Nigeria’s Performance on the Resource
Governance Index (carried out by the
global NGO- Revenue Watch Institute of the Open Society Foundations) – Nigeria
received a “weak” score of 42, ranking 40th out of 58 countries.
We
stood out among the 80% of countries which fail to achieve good governance in
their extractive sectors. The insalubrious performance of this dominant revenue
source seems to be one we have decided to wear elegantly with a mindset that
refuses to embrace the kind of fundamental change that will set the nation
free. A read of the now famous in the breach, PIB shows that we have refused to
surrender and subordinate the huge power of discretion exercised by the
President in all matters concerning oil since the last many decades. Surely,
for what we know of the huge benefits of transparency and competition it does
indeed stir the minds of those that have no interest in oil blocks but who care
for the maximization of value for the aggregate social good of Nigeria that we
walk the provisions of our NEITI law.
The
pervasive hold over our economy by oil shows up in everything. In our Sovereign
credit rating recently, poor governance, low per capita Gross Domestic Product
(GDP) and reserve cover were identified as Nigeria’s biggest challenge to
joining other Emerging Markets (EMs) according to Richard Fox of Fitch Ratings.
According to him, these areas represent Nigeria’s biggest challenge to
improving its rating, as highlighted in Fitch’s previous research. Of the
three, reserve cover is the most susceptible to rapid improvement, particularly
at current high oil prices. This is because although at that time of his
comment, Nigeria’s reserves had risen by around $2 billion they are not rising
as fast as in the majority of big oil exporters”. Comparisons always help
convey these kinds of information better.
During
the period, 2009 to 2011 Algeria expanded her savings from current oil boom by
at least 30% to build up its reserve and invest in critical infrastructure. The
new comer Angola nearly doubled its reserve while simultaneously implementing a
huge public investment program to build diversity of critical infrastructure.
Sadly, whether it is building up reserves/saving or in building critical
infrastructure and human capital our own trend is in the reverse. For even
though crude price rose or has held steady at different time, the quality of
governance continues to hobble our capacity to strike out onto the path of
success.
WHAT
PROSPECTS FOR THE FUTURE THEN?
In
what and whom do I place my confidence that a New Nigeria will emerge? What is
it that engenders my confidence that our five decades of failure is not
sustainable: First is the rising crescendo of dissatisfaction with the concept
of Failure by the over 50% percent of our population that are young. That daily
the young people of Nigeria- educated or not are anxious to path ways with
Failure is a source of optimism.
Today,
more than 40% of our young people may be unemployed and requiring a major
intervention that matches skills with economic structural change but they
represent strength for any leadership that “transcends” in the way it allocates
public resources to priorities. They insist by the words and action that they
know we can do better than we have done since our independence. The Women who
constituting about 50% of our population are by the records of present
accomplishment, the most visible secret weapons of our economic, social and
political development. The
entrepreneurial and “can do” spirit of just these two groups- the spirit that seeks to compete even with
the rest in the world by first conquering the uncertain and disabling context
in which it operates is emerging as the counter cultural shock to an elite
class that entrenched contemptible wealth based on ignoble ease as a national
creed.
The
return of the values of hard work and the reward of creativity and innovation
are the New Normal that Citizens want to engage their governments on. Citizens
question the things and values we reward. They question the perverse incentive
that rewards abhorrent behaviour while punishing what is right. They are
perplexed when they watch the elite class destroy the potency of sanctions
regime in every just society by acts that fail to demand the cost of bad
behaviour from big offenders . Citizens wish to unleash their talents and be
facilitated by a capable and service oriented public service to identify new
sources of growth forcing the diversification rhetoric into reality finally. We
must think through how to expand the revenue base of the country and manage it
efficiently. Nigeria’s revenue cannot cater for the size of the population that
we have and we seek to exploit other creative and natural endowments of nature
which primarily is our huge population of people with diverse capabilities.
The
generation of human capital through education- access to quality basic,
tertiary education expanded and well costed with access for the poor and
entrepreneurship education relevant to the needs of the economy is priority
agenda for a country that has grown over more then a decade now without
significant structural change. The structural transformation that focuses on
growing indigenous enterprise and deliberatively removing obstacles on the path
to economic growth for the women and the young with ideas is what a results
oriented government owes Citizens. According to data from the World Bank, it is
clear that 74% of our revenue comes from non-oil (mainly agricultural exports)
as at 1970. We have sadly reversed that suffering the pernicious effect of oil,
as currently oil account for 74% of gross national revenue reversing the trend.
While Nigeria exported 502 Metric tons of groundnut in 1961 which was 42% of
global production as at that time, we currently export almost nothing with the
pyramids now invented in stories told to our children.
Citizens
are redefining what true attributes of leadership are by demanding that those
who shall lead must be all possessing of – competency, character, competency
and capacity. Neither of the three can substitute for the other, The political
and technocratic class have no choice but to commit to redeeming our public
institutions and the human resources that run them. The redemption starts with
a true commitment to addressing today’s egregious cost of s the mantra of
today’s citizens.
Citizens
want to see real commitment to addressing the egregious cost of governance that
constitutes massive opportunity cost for equitable economic development that
benefits the larger number of citizens currently excluded from the benefits of
the growth of the last fourteen years of return to democracy. Citizens
associate our meagre revenue which pales when compared to our prospective peers known as MINT, with
wastes, gross inefficiency and corruption. Currently, we have N1.7tn paid out
of salaries, N721bn for debt servicing and other recurrent items which puts our
capital expenditure around N1.1tn. How then do we expand the economy, build the
modern infrastructure if for every N100 that we spend in actual terms, over N80
goes to recurrent items. Those are the issues which to engage leadership on
resolving.
Citizens
can now better link public resources and
results in their outcry for value-for-money and in the exercise of their right
to demand for accountability. They know that our power problems all these years
are not merely technical- it is governance failure. Our transportation problem
are not technical, it was governance failure. Our poor production and productivity
in agriculture is not merely technical, it is governance failure. They know
that our health and education and over all underperformance in humans
development score are not merely technical, it is due to governance failure.
It
cost $148bn dollars in todays value to rebuild Europe after the World War II.
This is less than half of the funds that was attributed to have been stolen
from Nigeria since independence. The expense of such funds transformed the
manufacturing, service industry and competitive factors of Europe. It cost $2bn
($349bn in todays value) to rebuild Japan after the nuclear attack. By
conservative estimate, our country has earned more than $600billion in the last
five decades and yet can only boast of a
United Nations Human Development Index score of .4 out of 1 proximate to that
of Chad and maternal mortality rate similar to that of Afghanistan! Nothing
reveals the depth of our failures than such performance indicators considering
the vastly greater possibilities that we have been bestowed.
Above
all, and finally, Citizens now seek to fully participation and make demands for
democratic accountability- they are not afraid to scrutinise all public
institutions and to demand better results of governance. The unwillingness of
any group of political elite to understand this emerging power of the Office of
the Citizen can only be a loss to the former and yet another missed opportunity
added to our canvass of political tragedies……. But God forbid!
Obiageli
(Oby) Ezekwesili
Keynote
Speaker
APC
SUMMIT, Abuja- March 6th 2014source
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